The Road to the 23 June 2016 Referendum
Only a week into the EU Referendum campaign and campaign fatigue has overtaken the vast majority of us. In four months we will be asked in English or Welsh:
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? / A ddylai’r Deyrnas Unedig aros yn aelod o’r Undeb Ewropeaidd neu adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd?
The last time Britain answered that question: 5 June 1975
I remember very well the campaign in 1975 where we voted for the first time on whether we should remain within the EU or strike out on our own.
Every household at the time received three booklets. One from the government titled “Britain’s new deal in Europe” summarised the Government’s position with the then Prime Minister Harold Wilson recommending that we stay. The other two booklets which were simply entitled “Why You Should Vote YES” and “Why You Should Vote NO”.
There are some striking similarities to the current campaign and the quality of the literature is as abysmal as that of the rhetoric we read and hear currently.
“Why You Should Vote NO” booklet
The NO booklet started with a fascinating quote. “The present government, though it has tried, has failed to achieve the ‘fundamental renegotiation’ it promised at the last two General Elections. All it has gained are a few concessions for Britain, some of them only temporary. The real choice before the British peoples has been scarcely altered by renegotiation.” Exactly what the NO campaign are saying today.
The main concern of the NO booklet is a fear of movement towards merging into a single nation. It trots out the expected line that the Common Market (as it was then known) makes our laws and decides our policies on food prices, trade and employment. Their main thrust mirrors that of the Ukip mantra on Briish loss of sovereignty.
It makes much of the fact that the Common Market is making our food more expensive with punitive import taxes on such things as butter. It makes great capital on the food mountains of beef, butter, grain et cetera. Fortunately, those mountains are no longer in existence.
Bizarrely, it warns of job losses because of the drift of industry southwards and to the continent. It warns of interference with the oil market which, of course has not happened. It points out that our trade deficit with the Common Market was running at £2.6 billion annually (£19.7 billion at 2015 prices – Bank of England calculator), whereas in 1970, trade was almost in balance. In 2015 the goods deficit with the EU was £8.1bn, less than half of the1975 adjusted figure.
It lists four main reasons to leave
- Common Market policies prop up inefficient farmers on the continent and cause our food prices to be high
- We need to have control of our own agricultural policy and our fishing waters
- our links with the Commonwealth will be further weakened. And, “we shall cease, in practice, to be a member of the Commonwealth”
- We will become a mere province of the Common Market
Finally, we would be able to remain members of the European Free Trade Area and it lists seven countries, most of which subsequently joined the EU.
It finishes “in a very few years we shall enjoy in North Sea oil a precious asset possessed by none of the Common Market countries”. It obviously had no idea what was going to happen to oil prices in 2015.
“Why You Should Vote YES” booklet
My natural inclination is to continue to be in membership of the EU. However, the case made in the YES booklet would never have convinced me. It summarises the four reasons for staying as:
- it makes good sense for our jobs and prosperity
- it makes good sense for world peace
- it makes good sense for the Commonwealth
- it makes good sense for our children’s future
Hardly a compelling case!
The booklet is full of worthy quotes from leading politicians of all parties and Commonwealth leaders which actually don’t amount to anything.
Probably their major case is made on the grounds that “Our friends want us to stay in”. They go on to say that the old Commonwealth (Australia, Canada and New Zealand), the 34 members of the new Commonwealth, United States and the other members of the European Community want us to stay in. They go on to say “outside, we should be alone in a harsh, cold world, with none of our friends offering to revive old partnerships.” Ahh, bless,
The arguments on why we can’t go it alone are probably the most embarrassing paragraphs and are all insubstantial rhetoric. My suspicion that this booklet had been written by a former Army Colonel who is now a Daily Express journalist were reinforced when it went on to talk about the position of the Queen being unaffected and English common law being safe.
The argument about jobs is also very shallow with statements like, “It is very doubtful if we could then negotiate a free-trade agreement with the Community.”
They did try some scaremongering about the future of our food supply and the major statement in the section, written in bold, read, “But Britain, as a country which cannot feed itself, will be safer in the Community which is almost self-sufficient in food. Otherwise, we may find ourselves standing at the end of the world food queue.”
In their summary of the alternatives they include statements like:
- some want an isolationist Britain with a “siege economy” – controls and rationing
- some want a Communist Britain – part of the Soviet bloc
To be honest, were it not for the fact that probably nobody read these two rubbish booklets, and relied on the fact that they made up their own minds without the benefit of properly reasoned argument, it is amazing to me that we secured a “Yes” vote.
I re-read the Government booklet and I don’t think it’s worth trying to summarise their arguments here. Their leaflet was heavy on graphics, heavy on difficult-to-understand statistics and light on reasoned arguments as to the consequences of a Yes or No vote.
Conclusion
There are two differences between the 1975 and the 2016 campaigns. In 1975 the role of the Commonwealth was a recurring theme through the booklets and there was no mention of immigration. In 2016 the reverse is the case.
In 2016, the best summary I have read for remaining in the EU was a letter written by Simon Sweeney in the Guardian. Although it is a little out of date – it was written in 2013 – it still makes a compelling case for the achievements of Britain being in the EU.
For an objective document about the consequences of a British withdrawal from the EU, I recommend the paper written by Dr Patrick Dixon.
We have four months of spectacularly tedious campaigning to endure which will be full of scaremongering and made up ‘facts’. I hope at the end of it that the decision will have been arrived at by careful consideration of the real facts, by rejecting nonsense, scaremongering and hyperbole. I’m fairly sure that the reality will be that, like in any election, the vast majority of people have made up their minds based on their own prejudices and the final result will be decided by the 15% or so people who have an open mind.
In 1975, of the 25 million people who voted, 67% voted to remain in the EU and 33% to leave.
It’s interesting to compare the 1975 figures compared with the latest polling (Survation, 20 Feb 2016). There is a huge disparity between England and the other UK nations.
| Stay % 1975 | Stay % 2016 | |
| England | 69 | 55 |
| Wales | 64 | 77 |
| Scotland | 58 | 77 |
| Northern Ireland | 52 | 77 |
The worrying prospect is that the overwhelming numbers in England will weight the results with a scenario that England, were it to vote to leave the EU, would wipe out the majority of the other nations who voted to remain. Without doubt, that is a great danger to the unity of the United Kingdom and would weaken the Union. We face difficult days ahead.
I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but your sites really nice, keep it up!
I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back
in the future. All the best
It’s amazing to visit this web site and reading the
views of all colleagues about this piece of writing, while I am also keen of getting
knowledge.
Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely
well written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and
return to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post.
I will definitely return.
At this moment I am ready to do my breakfast, afterward having my breakfast coming yet again to read
additional news.
Good way of explaining, and nice piece of writing to obtain data concerning my
presentation subject matter, which i am going to present in institution of higher education.
I needed to thank you for this wonderful read!! I absolutely enjoyed every bit of it.
I’ve got you bookmarked to check out new stuff you
post…
Have you ever thought about publishing an e-book or guest
authoring on other websites? I have a blog based upon on the
same ideas you discuss and would love to have
you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would appreciate your work.
If you’re even remotely interested, feel free
to send me an e-mail.
What’s up to every body, it’s my first pay a visit of this webpage; this webpage
includes awesome and in fact excellent stuff in favor of readers.
Every weekend i used to pay a quick visit
this web page, because i wish for enjoyment, as this this
web site conations in fact good funny data too.
Your style is unique compared to other people I’ve read stuff from.
Thanks for posting when you’ve got the opportunity,
Guess I’ll just book mark this web site.
When I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is a means you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!
you are actually a excellent webmaster. The site loading pace is amazing.
It seems that you are doing any unique trick. Furthermore, The
contents are masterwork. you have done a magnificent task on this matter!
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you writing this article plus the rest of the site is also very good.
Greate pieces. Keep posting such kind of information on your blog. Im really impressed by it.
You are so interesting! I do not suppose I’ve truly read anything like that
before. So wonderful to discover another person with some original thoughts on this subject.
Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up.
This web site is something that is required on the web, someone with a bit of originality!
Good information. Lucky me I discovered your blog by chance (stumbleupon).
I’ve bookmarked it for later!
Hello there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for
this site? I’m getting sick and tired of WordPress because I’ve
had problems with hackers and I’m looking at
options for another platform. I would be fantastic
if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find many
of your post’s to be exactly I’m looking for. Do you offer guest writers
to write content for you? I wouldn’t mind writing a post or elaborating on a few of the subjects you write regarding here.
Again, awesome weblog!
Heya! I realize this is kind of off-topic but I needed to ask.
Does running a well-established blog such as yours require a lot of work?
I am brand new to writing a blog however I do write in my
journal daily. I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my personal experience and feelings online.
Please let me know if you have any recommendations or tips for new aspiring blog owners.
Appreciate it!
Hi there! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace group?
There’s a lot of folks that I think would really enjoy your content.
Please let me know. Many thanks
I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog.
Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one these
days.
Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem together with your website in internet explorer, may test this?
IE nonetheless is the marketplace leader and a big element of other people will
leave out your wonderful writing because of this problem.
Do you have a spam problem on this site; I also
am a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; many of us
have developed some nice practices and we are looking to exchange methods with other folks, be sure to
shoot me an email if interested.
Thanks for your marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading
it, you’re a great author. I will always bookmark your blog and will eventually come
back someday. I want to encourage you to continue your great job, have a nice evening!
Great blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
A design like yours with a few simple adjustements
would really make my blog stand out. Please let me know where
you got your design. Appreciate it
Great blog here! Also your site loads up very fast! What web host are you using?
Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my
website loaded up as fast as yours lol
It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d definitely donate to this outstanding blog!
I guess for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your
RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will share this website with my Facebook group.
Talk soon!
An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto
a colleague who has been doing a little homework on this.
And he actually ordered me dinner simply because I found it for him…
lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!!
But yeah, thanx for spending the time to discuss this issue here on your blog.
We stumbled over here by a different page and thought
I might check things out. I like what I see so now i am following you.
Look forward to checking out your web page yet again.
I go to see each day some websites and websites to read articles, however this
blog gives feature based articles.
Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles?
I mean, what you say is important and all. But think of if you added some great images or video
clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but
with pics and video clips, this website could undeniably be one of the greatest in its niche.
Wonderful blog!
I always spent my half an hour to read this web
site’s articles or reviews everyday along with a mug of coffee.
you’re in point of fact a excellent webmaster. The site
loading speed is amazing. It kind of feels that you’re doing any unique trick.
Moreover, The contents are masterwork. you have done a magnificent task
in this topic!
I used to be able to find good information from your blog
posts.
I every time used to study piece of writing in news papers but
now as I am a user of internet therefore from now I am using net for articles, thanks to web.
I constantly spent my half an hour to read this webpage’s content all the time
along with a mug of coffee.
Superb post however , I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this topic?
I’d be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further.
Bless you!
hi!,I really like your writing so much! proportion we keep in touch more about your post on AOL?
I need an expert in this area to solve my problem. Maybe that’s you!
Taking a look ahead to look you.
Hi there, its pleasant article concerning media print, we all
be aware of media is a fantastic source of information.
Good day! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog.
Is it difficult to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but
I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m
not sure where to begin. Do you have any points or suggestions?
Thank you
Spot on with this write-up, I really believe this amazing site needs much more attention. Iíll probably be returning to read more, thanks for the advice!
I love it when folks come together and share ideas. Great website, keep it up!
Your style is very unique in comparison to other folks I’ve read stuff from. Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I’ll just book mark this page.
Wonderful goods from you, man. I have remember your stuff prior to and you’re simply
too magnificent. I really like what you have bought here, really like what you are stating
and the best way by which you say it. You make it entertaining and you continue to care for to keep it sensible.
I can’t wait to read much more from you. That is
actually a terrific website.
Hi! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be
okay. I’m undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to new updates.
This is really interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your excellent post.
Also, I’ve shared your site in my social networks!
Hmm it seems like your website ate my first comment
(it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up
what I submitted and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog.
I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole
thing. Do you have any recommendations for novice blog writers?
I’d really appreciate it.
You really make it appear really easy with your presentation but
I find this matter to be actually something which I
feel I’d by no means understand. It seems too
complex and very huge for me. I’m taking a look ahead in your subsequent submit,
I will attempt to get the hang of it!
Sweet blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News.
Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get
there! Thanks
You have made some decent points there. I checked on the internet for additional information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this site.